A winter election to decide Brexit.

Boris only needs 1 of the following 3 :

• a motion for a general election,

• a one-line bill,

• or a no-confidence motion.

 

A motion for a general election

Just as the name implies, the prime minister calls for a motion for an election. Now currently, the prime minister is proposing to hold an election on the 12th of December in exchange for more time for opposition MPs to scrutinise the deal further. However, some eyebrows have been raised with the suggested date as it adds logistical problems to conduct an election with the run-up to Christmas.

The last general election held so close to Christmas was in 1918. Ballot organisers will have to compete with organisers trying to set up pantomimes, and nativity plays as well as all the Christmas festivities.  An interesting fact is that most if not all, University students will be out for the winter break. This could work against Boris as polls on yougov.co.uk indicate that between the ages 18 to 28 years olds are :

• 40-38% likely to vote Labour,
• 20-30% likely to vote conservative
• 20-18% likely to vote Liberal Democrat
• 1-2% likely to vote UKIP

In fact, age has become one way of determining voting habits in the UK, while class is no longer a reliable indicator of how a person will vote. With a statistic showing that over 10 years, a British citizen loses 6% likelihood that they will vote Labour once they are past the age of 50. Some suspect that this is why Labour have abstained whenever Boris Johnson called for an election.

However, polls also indicated a shift has happened, and the majority of the British public are now more likely to back Remain.

So if the opposition puts forward a second referendum as one of their campaign points during an election, they could have a fighting chance to win if they appropriately capitalise on the student voter turnout.

A one-line bill

This would be a risky play by the Prime Minister, and it is unlikely to be the chosen course. Nevertheless, a brief explanation.
A one-line bill needs only a majority to go through. So let’s say Boris puts forward a bill that says that parliament has agreed to go to an election on a set date. If the House is in favour, it will happen. However, the bill is vulnerable to amendments. Conditions to go through might be set by individual MPs that might work against Boris. Such as trying to insist that the voting age be reduced to the age of 16, the dominant age group that support even Corbyn’s hardest policies, including dismantling the UK’s nuclear deterrent; Trident.

A no-confidence motion

It must be said that a vote of no-confidence was ruled out on by opposition parties as they couldn’t agree on a caretaker PM. At the time, they didn’t want a general election as the polls have held to the Tories favour and the remain opposition didn’t want to lose seats that would end up being votes towards Boris’s Brexit.

So what’s going to happen?

The UK will move towards a General Election, and Labour will try to win the ticket of a second referendum promise.

The Lib Dems, the SNP will throw their hat in support of this in an attempt to have a coalition that outnumbers Boris.

 

But as it stands, the figures still seem tight and even with an election still only looming the concern over voter turnout as already grim.

This week holds the key to the UK’s future and for many in the UK,
the politicians are playing a game that is a little too close for comfort.

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October 27, 2019October 27, 2019 by Matthew Sciriha

Boris wants to bounce back.

Well like his predecessor, Boris Johnson wasn’t elected, and Jeremy Corbyn might be waiting to use this like the proverbial “Ace up one’s sleeve”.

Boris needs an Election, Jeremy has conditions, and the EU won’t grant an extension until they see satisfying movement in the UK’s Parliament.

The 31st of October…

…will just be Halloween in the UK.

Boris Johnson’s insistence for a Brexit on the 31st of October is not happening. For weeks we have heard him scream that he insists on the UK being out of the EU by no later than the 31st of October or “rather be dead in a ditch”. But he’s not dead, and he isn’t in a ditch, in fact, now the push is for an election.

Boris needs an election

Being in government but not the majority is quite possibly one of the most stagnant forms of a parliament.

And if that wasn’t enough, Boris is always under a little extra scrutiny with him being embroiled in scandals such as the speculated affair with Jennifer Arcuri or the allegations of his misuse of public funds. As well as the suggestions that all this insistence on getting Brexit done is just to help him and his precious friends get even more rich. As it stands, the Labour party acts like it is stepping in his way, but not strong enough to change the government’s intended course of action. Which is why he is pushing for a general election on the 12th of December. The reason, of course, is simple; to attempt to gain the majority once more and be able to move Brexit forward. So why hasn’t this happened yet?

Click here to read on what Boris needs for an election.

Boris would only need 1 of the following 3 :

• A motion for a general election
• A one-line bill
• A no-confidence motion

How can one of these happen, click here for our post on this

Saturday evening held our latest plot twist though as the Liberal Democrats(Lib Dems) and the Scottish National Party(SNP) have suddenly put forward terms for their support to Boris’s next motion for a general election. The terms include the EU granting the extension till January,  and if it was separated from Brexit legislation. This could spell trouble for Corbyn and the polls reflect this…

Corbyn isn’t inspiring anyone.

It can be argued that the only reason that Theresa May’s weak government wasted 3 years to deliver no actual results is because of an even weaker opposition. Jeremy Corbyn has shifted position on so many issues that some of his own party members don’t trust that he would be the right person to stand for a general election. The conservatives have been delighted by him being the leader of the opposition as they see him as a weak opponent now just as they saw him as a weak opponent in 2015 when he became the leader of the opposition.

Currently, it is whispered among some of his MPs that he is seen as a LINO, Leader In Name Only.

Between the antisemitism scandals by some of his party members and having the worst poll rating in nearly 40 years, several of his MP’s don’t want to go to an election as they feel he will be more of an anchor than a winning leader. 

A poll carried out by Opinium Research from Wednesday to Friday showed support for the conservative party had reached 40% while the labour party had only 24%. It has been pointed out that the Labour party would like to avoid an election because MPs actually fear that they will lose their seats.

So the question from many to the Labour Party is, why are you sticking with Jeremy Corbyn?

 

The State of the Union

Scotland also wants out of a union…

With the now near-certain fate of the UK leaving the EU, Scotland is resorting to calling for a second referendum that would see Scotland take independence to re-enter the European Union. 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is to address a pro-independence rally in Glasgow on the 2nd of November. This will be the first time that she has attended such an event and has previously tweeted a video in which she states that Scotland values the EU citizens that live there and that the Scottish Government will do everything in its power to “help them stay.”

As it currently stands though, Nicola Sturgeon requires two things to bring this about.

1. She needs to force a no-confidence motion in Boris Johnson 
2. Get the support of who succeeds him to hold an independence referendum.

She also needs Brexit to actually happen to gain the momentum she needs from the public.

As it stood last week, polls showed that a desire for independence had grown to 50%.

 

“Whether you have lived here for months or many years, Scotland is your home, you are welcome here, and we want you to stay.”

Listen to First Minister @NicolaSturgeon’s message to EU citizens. pic.twitter.com/VSXlEklRle

— Scottish Government (@scotgov) October 25, 2019

In Conclusion…what do we expect to happen?

Boris Johnson could claim that his government are merely following the will of the people. However, it would seem that he is actually spearheading the dissolution of the United Kingdom. 

At the moment, there lies a stalemate as Brussells have said that they do not expect to have an answer on the Brexit extension until Tuesday. So Monday’s session could be met with one of two outcomes.

1. MPs vote to have an election in December. This will set in motion a chain of events that will have all the political parties to go into a hard-driving campaign mode, and one can expect that the media will be flooded with political messages. It will also prompt the EU to grant an extension. This is to allow the extension with enough time for a general election to take place and then get back into Parliament to either get the bill through(if the Conservatives hold government) or throw it out and or hold a second referendum (should Labour win).
2. Further delays that will force another emergency session that will probably take place on the 30th of October, where some last-ditch effort will be made to get the bill through. However, there still lies the possibility of a crash-out, some hold the belief, is the ultimate way that Boris plans to get Brexit done but not have to take any blame.

I expect he’ll say something along the lines of, “I struck a deal that Parliament wouldn’t allow through and the EU didn’t help. But I got us out of the European Union didn’t I.“

October 27, 2019February 10, 2020 by Matthew Sciriha

The aftermath of Brexit Saturday

Super Saturday came and went, so what happened?

The last time the British Parliament sat in the House of Commons on a Saturday was 37 years ago during the Falklands War. Boris Johnson needed to convince members of the opposition to vote in favour of his deal. This is because his government don’t have the numbers to carry the bill forward on their own. On Friday he expressed, however, that he was confident that the House would support it because if they didn’t, it’s no deal, or is it?

Jeremy Corbyn was obvious on his thoughts though…

At 9.30 am (British time), Parliament convened, and Boris Johnson has been subjected to Parliaments questions and statements. Some in favour, some not so; but none as scathing as Jeremy Corbyn’s who said :

“He(Boris Johnson) has renegotiated the withrawal agreement, and made it even worse….
He has renegotiated the politcal agreement, and made that even worse”

The People’s vote March

As these debates went on inside Westminister, a protest was amassing outside parliament. Thousands of people had descended upon London to join a march to demand parliament give the British people a second referendum and to put a stop Brexit.
There are of course MPs that are in favour of a second referendum. Perhaps as an ironic twist of fate, Boris Johnson’s own brother Jo Johnson is one of them. But the number of MPs that support a second referendum is growing on both sides of the House.

Over at the #peoplesvotemarch John Bercow features heavily on signs pic.twitter.com/NYGgDLicAO

— The New European – Think Without Borders (@TheNewEuropean) October 19, 2019

John Bercow being featured heavily on many signs.

Political Satirist Kaya Mar Source

Kaya Mar, who has been very harsh in his criticism of both leaders across the house is not alone. Many protestors displayed signs of disappointment in the MPs. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan is also believed to have attended the march and was walking at the front.

Chants of “EU, WE STAY, WE REALLY WANT TO STAY” amongst other chants were heard as the march proceeded from its starting point at Pall Mall. Many political groups formed alliances on the matter and were attending in support of the #PeoplesVoteMarch.

We're joining @Another_Europe's Left Bloc at the #PeoplesVoteMarch, come join us and make your voice heard! 📢📢📢 pic.twitter.com/V54jZR1pxK

— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) October 19, 2019

…The Vote…

The drama doesn’t stop, as Speaker Bercow selected the “Lentwin Amendment” for the MPs to vote on.

Quick re-cap on the “Lentwin Amendment.”

Well basically :
The amendment says parliament will withhold approval of the prime minister’s deal until the withdrawal bill implementing Brexit has been passed.
This is, as you can imagine quite the spanner in the works for Boris. It meant that if the amendment passed, he could not get parliament to approve the deal. So even if it had unanimous support, until the Withdrawal bill had been passed, nothing could move forward. So what did that mean?

If the deal passed, Boris would have to ask for an extension.
Precisely the opposite of what he repeatedly said,
even up until the start of yesterdays Super Saturday sitting.
He would not ask for an extension.

The Results rolled out.

The Ayes to the right 322, the Nos to the left 302. So the Ayes have it.

Now, at this point, you would think the British Prime Minister would perhaps raise a white flag, and ask for an extension. As is required of him by law. Instead, he sent three letters to Brussells, but only one letter is required for an extension request.

…So what were the letters?

The first letter was the request to the President of the European Council to grant an extension of the Brexit Deadline to the 31st of January 2020 11pm.
But the letter wasn’t even signed by the prime minister.
Boris Johnson has gone even further and called all the European leaders, including Donald Tusk, just to tell them that the letter was “parliament’s letter, not my letter.”
The second letter, which was initially obtained by BuzzFeed News, was written by Sir Tim Barrow(Uk’s permanent representative to the EU). This letter was addressed to Jeppe Tanholm-Mekkelsen the secretary-general of the Council of the European Union.
The letter was essentially a covering letter for the first letter that explained how the reason that the first letter was sent was that law obliged it. Or to put it a little more bluntly; the reason the first letter was sent was that the law demanded the prime minister had to send a letter to request an extension but that the British prime minister didn’t actually mean it. Boris Johnson still trying to get away with no asking for the extension on a technicality now.
The third letter, which was once again addressed to Donald Tusk, described how the Prime Minister regretted that “parliament missed the opportunity to inject momentum into the ratification process for the new Withdrawal Agreement.”
You can say that the prime minister is trying to sidestep away from being legally required to request a Brexit extension.
Adding that he would have prefered a different outcome, he said, “The government will press ahead with ratification and introduce the necessary legislation early next week. I remain confident that we will complete that process by 31 October.”
Even now, many of us are still wondering how that would also be possible.

So what happens next?

Everything now rests on the Withdrawal Agreement passing through the House of Commons on Monday the 21st of October. Without it, parliament cannot vote on a Brexit deal.
If it doesn’t go through, it will lead to the government to have no choice but to ask for an extension. And at the rate things are going, it looks like this battle is far from over.

Conclusion

The British government must either call for a general election or for a referendum. Now keep in mind that a general election could lead to a referendum anyway, but that depends on which side of the house takes power. The government continues to lose support in the house as members of his own party continue to turn on him. One thing is sure, as Theresa May said in the house of commons yesterday, that she felt a sense of Deja Vu from the circumstances. And for once she was right on the bullseye. It can be argued that this was history repeating itself on having another prime minister that has been appointed by their party and not by the public.
So chaos in Westminister, protest on the streets of London and despite Boris’s claim to be fighting for a stronger union of the nations of the UK he is on the verge of losing one. The Scottish government is well underway to back laws to trigger a Scottish Independence vote with a second Scottish Referendum.
The Brexit storm seems to be tearing apart the UK, and it might be time for the government to start asking if this is all really worth it anymore.

Should Brexit be put on hold and a second referendum held?

October 20, 2019February 10, 2020 by Matthew Sciriha

Brexit: A New Hope or the beginning of the end.

From left to right, Josep Borrell, Michel Barnier, Simon Coveney.

What is the EU saying?…

When asked about why he believes that negotiations will run-up to the very end of the deadline Josep Borrell had this to say: “Because in the European Union that’s the rule, the decision came in the last last minute“

Irish deputy “the UK will need to move to facilitate an agreement”

Michel Barnier says: “a deal is still possible.”

“Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?”

Recently we asked the question  “Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?”

Well after comments like these from EU politicians, it looks like Boris has (for better or worse)steamrolled ahead with his plan and this still has many people concerned.

The speculation is that the way things are moving, the idea was and still is, to let the pressure build enough to force each side to concede on some issues. Like this, they can both, in a desperate attempt to make a deal, concede on certain issues while winning others.

So where are we on the Brexit Deal?

Between the UK and EU is the negotiations table where the currently tabled deal is being adjusted; but what if Boris’s plan backfires and the UK’s negotiations team is forced to choose between conceding too much and no-deal?

Well believe it or not, but Boris and his team could still make him “look” like a hero if the UK suffers in its deal with the EU. How?

Boris would have delivered Brexit by 31/10/2019.

But back to Brexit, how close are they to a deal? Well, Sky News amongst others reported that “After 90 minutes of talks between Boris Johnson and Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the Democratic Unionist Party, the DUP leaders left Downing Street tight-lipped.”

This suggests that some serious back and forth is going on between No10 and the DUP after Leo Varadkar and Michel Barnier leaned to a position that believed in achieving a deal. Now while many will be pleased that a deal could be happening, this could well be the beginning of the end.

Scotland wants a second referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans for another Scottish referendum to take place. This is after the recent announcement by Scotland’s Constitutional Relations Secretary Michael Russell that “There is a path open for Scotland to walk into EU membership. There are, of course, things to be done, there is a great deal of hard work, but it can be done, and that is the big issue.”

This complicates matters because Scotland still conducts the majority of

Source

 its trade within the UK: in 2014, Scotland’s exports totalled £76 billion, of which £48.5 billion (64%) was with constituent nations of the UK. So if Scotland takes independence and joins the single market, the UK could face a similar scenario to the current one taking place over the Irish Border.

Boris Johnson has already stated his opposition to a second Vote as he said, “I think we can cement and intensify the union”.

The final part of this puzzle is the planned protest for a “Final Say” referendum by the public. On the 19th of October, hundreds of thousands of people are expected to descend upon London in a protest to force the government to hold a second referendum. With over a hundred coaches booked to transport people to London, an increase in the number that was booked for the previous protest, on 23 March.

Conclusion:

I think we can expect 2 outcomes, 

1. A deal will be struck, and the UK will begin all the necessary preparations to leave, with a minor extension to take place to iron out all the legal jargon. This will, of course, set in motion a chain of events that will include the Scottish referendum. The referendum is also significant as it will be a considerable influence on those wishing to see a single, united Ireland.
2. If the expected emergency Saturday Sitting doesn’t go well for Boris when he presents his new deal to the commons. Then a lengthy extension will be required as will have no choice but to request it. This, of course, will be a significant blow to the Tory leader, which might not be recoverable for the expected upcoming election.

Have your say, comment below and tell us what do you think will happen?

 

Image by Source

 

October 16, 2019October 20, 2019 by Matthew Sciriha

BORIS’s one major obstacle in delivering Brexit; The Law.

Header image source

Boris tried to force the EU to choose, the Northern Irish people and all those affected by Brexit or their word.

So why was the deal he presented such a dangerous gamble? Should the EU concede to his demands, then it opens up the possibility of other countries attempting to make more significant demands on the EU as well. However, Boris would have had a credible threat had there not been the Benn Act.

On the 6th of September 2019, parliament passed a bill the would require the Prime Minister to seek an extension to the Brexit withdrawal date. Now nobody has mentioned what the penalty is if this law is broken. One could speculate though that it is probably a hefty fine which will probably be paid for by those that will gain millions out of Brexit.

Here’s the rub, Boris is set to prorogue parliament on the 8th of October with the queen’s speech to be on schedule for the 14th of October. This only brings to light how Johnson’s dangerous gamble is walking the razor’s edge whilst carrying the future of the UK.

While everyone is getting anxious, it is as if the British Prime minister wants to play a game of chicken with the EU. To see who backs down first. One thing is sure, Boris is now expected to seek the extension if no deal is reached by the 19th of October. The only other alternative is that Boris is fully aware and willing to break the law.

What could he be planning? Or rather; how does he expect things to unfold should he break that law?

Hypothetically: 

October 19th rolls by and Boris continues to refuse to request the extension. Parliament will, of course, be in an uproar and an election would be called. As we previously mentioned above, there is no known penalty should the British Prime Minister break that law and he expects to get a simple slap on the wrist. Meanwhile over those few days, the clock ticks away the days until the election and its results come in. The conservatives win government and Boris gets to be the one man that delivered Brexit.

 

Meanwhile, Brussels is saying that what has been presented is not good enough. Guy Verhofstadt, chair of the European Parliament’s Brexit steering group, said they were “absolutely not positive” about Mr Johnson’s plan, adding “It doesn’t provide the necessary safeguards for Ireland.“

 

 

As expected, the two border system has not gone down well with Ireland and Leo Varadkar is scheduled to meet with Boris Johnson. Varadker said: “he believes a Brexit deal can still be struck“. 

 

Everyone is feeling the pressure as the deadline looms and the only thing agreed is that time is running out. Meanwhile, a video displayed by the Irish times talking to the common man on the street, presented some people in Ireland are afraid that the violent days of the past could return.

 

October 6, 2019February 3, 2020 by Matthew Sciriha

Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?

A Deal is on the table, but what happens if it fails?

29 days to Brexit and Boris Johnson has put forward a deal that is raising eyebrows. You could say that this deal forces the EU to choose between the people in Northern Ireland and their own pride. 

 

 

Jeremy Corbyn  (UK opposition party

“…It’s worse than Theresa May’s Deal. I can’t see it getting the support…..”

 

 

 

 

“…the proposals do not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop…” 

Leo Varadkar (Taoiseach / Irish Prime Minister)

 

 

 

 

So while he avoids allegations of an affair, Boris Johnson is proposing two 2 separate checkpoints at a distance, either side of the border and the other being at sea. We all knew it would be a complex solution for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Chief Eu Negotiator, Michael Barnier said that while there was progress, a lot of work was still left to be done.

In an interview with Sky News, Jeremy Corbyn continued to explain that he believed it would lead to a lot of de-regulation and could even undermine the Good Friday Agreement.

The alternative is out.

Northern Ireland has seen tensions flare up as the country faces the hard border again, and talk of the New IRA is becoming a cause for alarm. The assistant chief constable Barbara Gray, who heads up the counter-terrorism response unit for the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), recently told The Guardian :

“I think in the last few weeks, probably since the new cabinet, the new PM and his announcements [on the exit date] that ‘this is October 31, this is what we’re looking at’, I think generally you can almost feel a bit of anxiety rising across society.”

Gray added: “Anything that brings the border issue into question in Northern Ireland brings tension.”

Earlier this year, Journalist Lyra Mckee was murdered by activists of the New IRA during a riot she was reporting on. The New IRA gave the statement:

“On Thursday night, following an incursion on the Creggan by heavily armed British crown forces which provoked rioting, the IRA deployed our volunteers to engage. We have instructed our volunteers to take the utmost care in future when engaging the enemy, and put in place measures to help ensure this.

“In the course of attacking the enemy Lyra McKee was tragically killed while standing beside enemy forces. The IRA offer our full and sincere apologies to the partner, family and friends of Lyra McKee for her death.”

A certain choice of language used in the statement is cause for concern:

…deployed our volunteers to engage…: volunteers aren’t deployed, Soldiers are, and that is exactly what this group feels they are. But this is slowly shaping into not only the end of the UK in the European but also the end of the UK as we know it. 

In 2014 Scotland held a referendum and asked it’s citizens:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Scotland answered “No.“

But since the Brexit result, this has been shifting. More and more people in Scotland are seeing the dangers of being outside of Europe and the damage it could leave on the Scottish Economy.

So is the Uk on the brink of collapse and isolation?

 

October 3, 2019October 27, 2019 by Matthew Sciriha