The aftermath of Brexit Saturday

Super Saturday came and went, so what happened?

The last time the British Parliament sat in the House of Commons on a Saturday was 37 years ago during the Falklands War. Boris Johnson needed to convince members of the opposition to vote in favour of his deal. This is because his government don’t have the numbers to carry the bill forward on their own. On Friday he expressed, however, that he was confident that the House would support it because if they didn’t, it’s no deal, or is it?

Jeremy Corbyn was obvious on his thoughts though…

At 9.30 am (British time), Parliament convened, and Boris Johnson has been subjected to Parliaments questions and statements. Some in favour, some not so; but none as scathing as Jeremy Corbyn’s who said :

“He(Boris Johnson) has renegotiated the withrawal agreement, and made it even worse….
He has renegotiated the politcal agreement, and made that even worse”

The People’s vote March

As these debates went on inside Westminister, a protest was amassing outside parliament. Thousands of people had descended upon London to join a march to demand parliament give the British people a second referendum and to put a stop Brexit.
There are of course MPs that are in favour of a second referendum. Perhaps as an ironic twist of fate, Boris Johnson’s own brother Jo Johnson is one of them. But the number of MPs that support a second referendum is growing on both sides of the House.

Over at the #peoplesvotemarch John Bercow features heavily on signs pic.twitter.com/NYGgDLicAO

— The New European – Think Without Borders (@TheNewEuropean) October 19, 2019

John Bercow being featured heavily on many signs.

Political Satirist Kaya Mar Source

Kaya Mar, who has been very harsh in his criticism of both leaders across the house is not alone. Many protestors displayed signs of disappointment in the MPs. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan is also believed to have attended the march and was walking at the front.

Chants of “EU, WE STAY, WE REALLY WANT TO STAY” amongst other chants were heard as the march proceeded from its starting point at Pall Mall. Many political groups formed alliances on the matter and were attending in support of the #PeoplesVoteMarch.

We're joining @Another_Europe's Left Bloc at the #PeoplesVoteMarch, come join us and make your voice heard! 📢📢📢 pic.twitter.com/V54jZR1pxK

— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) October 19, 2019

…The Vote…

The drama doesn’t stop, as Speaker Bercow selected the “Lentwin Amendment” for the MPs to vote on.

Quick re-cap on the “Lentwin Amendment.”

Well basically :
The amendment says parliament will withhold approval of the prime minister’s deal until the withdrawal bill implementing Brexit has been passed.
This is, as you can imagine quite the spanner in the works for Boris. It meant that if the amendment passed, he could not get parliament to approve the deal. So even if it had unanimous support, until the Withdrawal bill had been passed, nothing could move forward. So what did that mean?

If the deal passed, Boris would have to ask for an extension.
Precisely the opposite of what he repeatedly said,
even up until the start of yesterdays Super Saturday sitting.
He would not ask for an extension.

The Results rolled out.

The Ayes to the right 322, the Nos to the left 302. So the Ayes have it.

Now, at this point, you would think the British Prime Minister would perhaps raise a white flag, and ask for an extension. As is required of him by law. Instead, he sent three letters to Brussells, but only one letter is required for an extension request.

…So what were the letters?

The first letter was the request to the President of the European Council to grant an extension of the Brexit Deadline to the 31st of January 2020 11pm.
But the letter wasn’t even signed by the prime minister.
Boris Johnson has gone even further and called all the European leaders, including Donald Tusk, just to tell them that the letter was “parliament’s letter, not my letter.”
The second letter, which was initially obtained by BuzzFeed News, was written by Sir Tim Barrow(Uk’s permanent representative to the EU). This letter was addressed to Jeppe Tanholm-Mekkelsen the secretary-general of the Council of the European Union.
The letter was essentially a covering letter for the first letter that explained how the reason that the first letter was sent was that law obliged it. Or to put it a little more bluntly; the reason the first letter was sent was that the law demanded the prime minister had to send a letter to request an extension but that the British prime minister didn’t actually mean it. Boris Johnson still trying to get away with no asking for the extension on a technicality now.
The third letter, which was once again addressed to Donald Tusk, described how the Prime Minister regretted that “parliament missed the opportunity to inject momentum into the ratification process for the new Withdrawal Agreement.”
You can say that the prime minister is trying to sidestep away from being legally required to request a Brexit extension.
Adding that he would have prefered a different outcome, he said, “The government will press ahead with ratification and introduce the necessary legislation early next week. I remain confident that we will complete that process by 31 October.”
Even now, many of us are still wondering how that would also be possible.

So what happens next?

Everything now rests on the Withdrawal Agreement passing through the House of Commons on Monday the 21st of October. Without it, parliament cannot vote on a Brexit deal.
If it doesn’t go through, it will lead to the government to have no choice but to ask for an extension. And at the rate things are going, it looks like this battle is far from over.

Conclusion

The British government must either call for a general election or for a referendum. Now keep in mind that a general election could lead to a referendum anyway, but that depends on which side of the house takes power. The government continues to lose support in the house as members of his own party continue to turn on him. One thing is sure, as Theresa May said in the house of commons yesterday, that she felt a sense of Deja Vu from the circumstances. And for once she was right on the bullseye. It can be argued that this was history repeating itself on having another prime minister that has been appointed by their party and not by the public.
So chaos in Westminister, protest on the streets of London and despite Boris’s claim to be fighting for a stronger union of the nations of the UK he is on the verge of losing one. The Scottish government is well underway to back laws to trigger a Scottish Independence vote with a second Scottish Referendum.
The Brexit storm seems to be tearing apart the UK, and it might be time for the government to start asking if this is all really worth it anymore.

Should Brexit be put on hold and a second referendum held?

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October 20, 2019February 10, 2020 by Matthew Sciriha

Brexit: A New Hope or the beginning of the end.

From left to right, Josep Borrell, Michel Barnier, Simon Coveney.

What is the EU saying?…

When asked about why he believes that negotiations will run-up to the very end of the deadline Josep Borrell had this to say: “Because in the European Union that’s the rule, the decision came in the last last minute“

Irish deputy “the UK will need to move to facilitate an agreement”

Michel Barnier says: “a deal is still possible.”

“Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?”

Recently we asked the question  “Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?”

Well after comments like these from EU politicians, it looks like Boris has (for better or worse)steamrolled ahead with his plan and this still has many people concerned.

The speculation is that the way things are moving, the idea was and still is, to let the pressure build enough to force each side to concede on some issues. Like this, they can both, in a desperate attempt to make a deal, concede on certain issues while winning others.

So where are we on the Brexit Deal?

Between the UK and EU is the negotiations table where the currently tabled deal is being adjusted; but what if Boris’s plan backfires and the UK’s negotiations team is forced to choose between conceding too much and no-deal?

Well believe it or not, but Boris and his team could still make him “look” like a hero if the UK suffers in its deal with the EU. How?

Boris would have delivered Brexit by 31/10/2019.

But back to Brexit, how close are they to a deal? Well, Sky News amongst others reported that “After 90 minutes of talks between Boris Johnson and Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the Democratic Unionist Party, the DUP leaders left Downing Street tight-lipped.”

This suggests that some serious back and forth is going on between No10 and the DUP after Leo Varadkar and Michel Barnier leaned to a position that believed in achieving a deal. Now while many will be pleased that a deal could be happening, this could well be the beginning of the end.

Scotland wants a second referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans for another Scottish referendum to take place. This is after the recent announcement by Scotland’s Constitutional Relations Secretary Michael Russell that “There is a path open for Scotland to walk into EU membership. There are, of course, things to be done, there is a great deal of hard work, but it can be done, and that is the big issue.”

This complicates matters because Scotland still conducts the majority of

Source

 its trade within the UK: in 2014, Scotland’s exports totalled £76 billion, of which £48.5 billion (64%) was with constituent nations of the UK. So if Scotland takes independence and joins the single market, the UK could face a similar scenario to the current one taking place over the Irish Border.

Boris Johnson has already stated his opposition to a second Vote as he said, “I think we can cement and intensify the union”.

The final part of this puzzle is the planned protest for a “Final Say” referendum by the public. On the 19th of October, hundreds of thousands of people are expected to descend upon London in a protest to force the government to hold a second referendum. With over a hundred coaches booked to transport people to London, an increase in the number that was booked for the previous protest, on 23 March.

Conclusion:

I think we can expect 2 outcomes, 

1. A deal will be struck, and the UK will begin all the necessary preparations to leave, with a minor extension to take place to iron out all the legal jargon. This will, of course, set in motion a chain of events that will include the Scottish referendum. The referendum is also significant as it will be a considerable influence on those wishing to see a single, united Ireland.
2. If the expected emergency Saturday Sitting doesn’t go well for Boris when he presents his new deal to the commons. Then a lengthy extension will be required as will have no choice but to request it. This, of course, will be a significant blow to the Tory leader, which might not be recoverable for the expected upcoming election.

Have your say, comment below and tell us what do you think will happen?

 

Image by Source

 

October 16, 2019October 20, 2019 by Matthew Sciriha

Did Boris Johnson have a stroke of Genius or did he just gamble with the UK’s future in a high stakes game?

A Deal is on the table, but what happens if it fails?

29 days to Brexit and Boris Johnson has put forward a deal that is raising eyebrows. You could say that this deal forces the EU to choose between the people in Northern Ireland and their own pride. 

 

 

Jeremy Corbyn  (UK opposition party

“…It’s worse than Theresa May’s Deal. I can’t see it getting the support…..”

 

 

 

 

“…the proposals do not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop…” 

Leo Varadkar (Taoiseach / Irish Prime Minister)

 

 

 

 

So while he avoids allegations of an affair, Boris Johnson is proposing two 2 separate checkpoints at a distance, either side of the border and the other being at sea. We all knew it would be a complex solution for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Chief Eu Negotiator, Michael Barnier said that while there was progress, a lot of work was still left to be done.

In an interview with Sky News, Jeremy Corbyn continued to explain that he believed it would lead to a lot of de-regulation and could even undermine the Good Friday Agreement.

The alternative is out.

Northern Ireland has seen tensions flare up as the country faces the hard border again, and talk of the New IRA is becoming a cause for alarm. The assistant chief constable Barbara Gray, who heads up the counter-terrorism response unit for the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), recently told The Guardian :

“I think in the last few weeks, probably since the new cabinet, the new PM and his announcements [on the exit date] that ‘this is October 31, this is what we’re looking at’, I think generally you can almost feel a bit of anxiety rising across society.”

Gray added: “Anything that brings the border issue into question in Northern Ireland brings tension.”

Earlier this year, Journalist Lyra Mckee was murdered by activists of the New IRA during a riot she was reporting on. The New IRA gave the statement:

“On Thursday night, following an incursion on the Creggan by heavily armed British crown forces which provoked rioting, the IRA deployed our volunteers to engage. We have instructed our volunteers to take the utmost care in future when engaging the enemy, and put in place measures to help ensure this.

“In the course of attacking the enemy Lyra McKee was tragically killed while standing beside enemy forces. The IRA offer our full and sincere apologies to the partner, family and friends of Lyra McKee for her death.”

A certain choice of language used in the statement is cause for concern:

…deployed our volunteers to engage…: volunteers aren’t deployed, Soldiers are, and that is exactly what this group feels they are. But this is slowly shaping into not only the end of the UK in the European but also the end of the UK as we know it. 

In 2014 Scotland held a referendum and asked it’s citizens:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Scotland answered “No.“

But since the Brexit result, this has been shifting. More and more people in Scotland are seeing the dangers of being outside of Europe and the damage it could leave on the Scottish Economy.

So is the Uk on the brink of collapse and isolation?

 

October 3, 2019October 27, 2019 by Matthew Sciriha