A winter election to decide Brexit.

Winter election

Boris only needs 1 of the following 3 :

  • a motion for a general election,

  • a one-line bill,

  • or a no-confidence motion.


UK parties

A motion for a general election

Just as the name implies, the prime minister calls for a motion for an election. Now currently, the prime minister is proposing to hold an election on the 12th of December in exchange for more time for opposition MPs to scrutinise the deal further. However, some eyebrows have been raised with the suggested date as it adds logistical problems to conduct an election with the run-up to Christmas.Ballot hall

The last general election held so close to Christmas was in 1918. Ballot organisers will have to compete with organisers trying to set up pantomimes, and nativity plays as well as all the Christmas festivities.  An interesting fact is that most if not all, University students will be out for the winter break. This could work against Boris as polls on yougov.co.uk indicate that between the ages 18 to 28 years olds are :IMG_9139

  • 40-38% likely to vote Labour,
  • 20-30% likely to vote conservative
  • 20-18% likely to vote Liberal Democrat
  • 1-2% likely to vote UKIP

In fact, age has become one way of determining voting habits in the UK, while class is no longer a reliable indicator of how a person will vote. With a statistic showing that over 10 years, a British citizen loses 6% likelihood that they will vote Labour once they are past the age of 50. Some suspect that this is why Labour have abstained whenever Boris Johnson called for an election.

However, polls also indicated a shift has happened, and the majority of the British public are now more likely to back Remain.

So if the opposition puts forward a second referendum as one of their campaign points during an election, they could have a fighting chance to win if they appropriately capitalise on the student voter turnout.

A one-line bill

This would be a risky play by the Prime Minister, and it is unlikely to be the chosen course. Nevertheless, a brief explanation.
A one-line bill needs only a majority to go through. So let’s say Boris puts forward a bill that says that parliament has agreed to go to an election on a set date. If the House is in favour, it will happen. However, the bill is vulnerable to amendments. Conditions to go through might be set by individual MPs that might work against Boris. Such as trying to insist that the voting age be reduced to the age of 16, the dominant age group that support even Corbyn’s hardest policies, including dismantling the UK’s nuclear deterrent; Trident.

A no-confidence motion

It must be said that a vote of no-confidence was ruled out on by opposition parties as they couldn’t agree on a caretaker PM. At the time, they didn’t want a general election as the polls have held to the Tories favour and the remain opposition didn’t want to lose seats that would end up being votes towards Boris’s Brexit.

So what’s going to happen?

Winter Westminister Snow

The UK will move towards a General Election, and Labour will try to win the ticket of a second referendum promise.

The Lib Dems, the SNP will throw their hat in support of this in an attempt to have a coalition that outnumbers Boris.


But as it stands, the figures still seem tight and even with an election still only looming the concern over voter turnout as already grim.

This week holds the key to the UK’s future and for many in the UK,
the politicians are playing a game that is a little too close for comfort.


Boris wants to bounce back.

Boris positive meme

Well like his predecessor, Boris Johnson wasn’t elected, and Jeremy Corbyn might be waiting to use this like the proverbial “Ace up one’s sleeve”.

Boris needs an Election, Jeremy has conditions, and the EU won’t grant an extension until they see satisfying movement in the UK’s Parliament.

The 31st of October…

…will just be Halloween in the UK.

Boris Johnson’s insistence for a Brexit on the 31st of October is not happening. For weeks we have heard him scream that he insists on the UK being out of the EU by no later than the 31st of October or “rather be dead in a ditch”. But he’s not dead, and he isn’t in a ditch, in fact, now the push is for an election.

Boris needs an election

Boris cant get a voteBeing in government but not the majority is quite possibly one of the most stagnant forms of a parliament.

And if that wasn’t enough, Boris is always under a little extra scrutiny with him being embroiled in scandals such as the speculated affair with Jennifer Arcuri or the allegations of his misuse of public funds. As well as the suggestions that all this insistence on getting Brexit done is just to help him and his precious friends get even more rich. As it stands, the Labour party acts like it is stepping in his way, but not strong enough to change the government’s intended course of action. Which is why he is pushing for a general election on the 12th of December. The reason, of course, is simple; to attempt to gain the majority once more and be able to move Brexit forward. So why hasn’t this happened yet?

Winter Westminister Snow
Click here to read on what Boris needs for an election.

Boris would only need 1 of the following 3 :

  • A motion for a general election
  • A one-line bill
  • A no-confidence motion

How can one of these happen, click here for our post on this

Saturday evening held our latest plot twist though as the Liberal Democrats(Lib Dems) and the Scottish National Party(SNP) have suddenly put forward terms for their support to Boris’s next motion for a general election. The terms include the EU granting the extension till January,  and if it was separated from Brexit legislation. This could spell trouble for Corbyn and the polls reflect this…

Corbyn isn’t inspiring anyone.

It can be argued that the only reason that Theresa May’s weak government wasted 3 years to deliver no actual results is because of an even weaker opposition. Jeremy Corbyn has shifted position on so many issues that some of his own party members don’t trust that he would be the right person to stand for a general election. 3efreu.jpgThe conservatives have been delighted by him being the leader of the opposition as they see him as a weak opponent now just as they saw him as a weak opponent in 2015 when he became the leader of the opposition.

Currently, it is whispered among some of his MPs that he is seen as a LINO, Leader In Name Only.

Between the antisemitism scandals by some of his party members and having the worst poll rating in nearly 40 years, several of his MP’s don’t want to go to an election as they feel he will be more of an anchor than a winning leader. 

A poll carried out by Opinium Research from Wednesday to Friday showed support for the conservative party had reached 40% while the labour party had only 24%. It has been pointed out that the Labour party would like to avoid an election because MPs actually fear that they will lose their seats.

So the question from many to the Labour Party is, why are you sticking with Jeremy Corbyn?


The State of the Union

Scotland also wants out of a union…

With the now near-certain fate of the UK leaving the EU, Scotland is resorting to calling for a second referendum that would see Scotland take independence to re-enter the European Union. 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is to address a pro-independence rally in Glasgow on the 2nd of November. This will be the first time that she has attended such an event and has previously tweeted a video in which she states that Scotland values the EU citizens that live there and that the Scottish Government will do everything in its power to “help them stay.”

As it currently stands though, Nicola Sturgeon requires two things to bring this about.

  1. She needs to force a no-confidence motion in Boris Johnson 
  2. Get the support of who succeeds him to hold an independence referendum.

She also needs Brexit to actually happen to gain the momentum she needs from the public.

As it stood last week, polls showed that a desire for independence had grown to 50%.


In Conclusion…what do we expect to happen?

Boris Johnson could claim that his government are merely following the will of the people. However, it would seem that he is actually spearheading the dissolution of the United Kingdom. 

At the moment, there lies a stalemate as Brussells have said that they do not expect to have an answer on the Brexit extension until Tuesday. So Monday’s session could be met with one of two outcomes.

  1. MPs vote to have an election in December. This will set in motion a chain of events that will have all the political parties to go into a hard-driving campaign mode, and one can expect that the media will be flooded with political messages. It will also prompt the EU to grant an extension. This is to allow the extension with enough time for a general election to take place and then get back into Parliament to either get the bill through(if the Conservatives hold government) or throw it out and or hold a second referendum (should Labour win).
  2. Further delays that will force another emergency session that will probably take place on the 30th of October, where some last-ditch effort will be made to get the bill through. However, there still lies the possibility of a crash-out, some hold the belief, is the ultimate way that Boris plans to get Brexit done but not have to take any blame.

I expect he’ll say something along the lines of, “I struck a deal that Parliament wouldn’t allow through and the EU didn’t help. But I got us out of the European Union didn’t I.